Visitor numbers from the US are expected to be down by 10 to 15 per cent this year, but an airfare war may help stimulate demand.
Tourism New Zealand US regional manager Annie Dundas said New Zealand's third largest market had been more resilient than expected in 2008, but the tide had turned quickly this year.
"Compared to competitors, New Zealand came out better than some."
US visitors to the UK were down 12 per cent while numbers to France dropped 10 per cent.
But the start of the year has seen New Zealand fall to the levels of its European rivals. While official figures have yet to come out, Dundas said US visitors in January were down between 10 and 15 per cent.